Promise tracker

People forget what was promised, and when a promise is missed nobody notices. We keep the score: 56 predictions about quantum computing, each with its original deadline. When a deadline moves, we record it instead of overwriting it.

7 delivered · 3 partly delivered · 4 missed · 3 delayed · 2 withdrawn · 37 pending

Open

DuePredictionStatus
2026Fujitsu and RIKEN plan a 1,000-qubit superconducting quantum computer in 2026Pending
2026IBM Kookaburra: the first module of a fault-tolerant machine in 2026Pending
2026IBM expects verified quantum advantage by the end of 2026Pending
2026IonQ promises 256-qubit systems with 99.99% accuracy by 2026Pending
2026QuEra plans a 100-logical-qubit error-corrected quantum computer in 2026Pending
2027IBM Cockatoo: linking two error-corrected modules in 2027Pending
2027IonQ promises over 10,000 physical qubits on a single chip by 2027Pending
2027Microsoft and Atom Computing promise the Magne logical-qubit computer by early 2027Pending
2027PsiQuantum aims to have its Brisbane quantum computer site running by end of 2027Pending
2027Quantinuum Sol: a 192-qubit trapped-ion computer in 2027Pending
2028IBM Nighthawk to run 15,000-gate circuits on about 1,000 qubits by 2028Pending
2028Pasqal targets a 10,000-qubit neutral-atom quantum computer in 2026Delayed
Nov 2028Scott Aaronson: fault-tolerant Shor's algorithm possible before the 2028 US electionPending
2029Google sets 2029 as its target for moving to post-quantum cryptographyPending
2029Google aims for a useful, error-corrected quantum computer by 2029Pending
2029IBM's CEO expects quantum to lift IBM's revenue and profit by 2028 or 2029Pending
2029IBM Starling: a large, fault-tolerant quantum computerPending
2029Microsoft plans to move its products to quantum-safe cryptography by 2033Pending
2029Microsoft aims for a scalable, practical quantum computer by 2029Pending
2029Quantinuum Apollo: a universal, fully fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029Pending
2029Rigetti targets a 1,000-plus-qubit quantum computer by the end of 2027Delayed
2030Alice & Bob plans a 100-logical-qubit quantum computer for early industrial use by 2030Pending
2030Bill Gates: useful quantum computing possible within three to five yearsPending
2030EU: critical infrastructure on post-quantum cryptography by end of 2030Pending
2030IonQ promises 2 million physical and 80,000 logical qubits by 2030Pending
2030IQM targets fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2030Pending
Feb 2030Google's quantum chief expects real-world quantum applications within five yearsPending
Apr 2030PsiQuantum to have a commercial quantum computer by the middle of the decadeDelayed
Mar 2031Fujitsu plans a 10,000-qubit machine with 250 logical qubits by fiscal 2030Pending
2032D-Wave plans a 100-logical-qubit gate-model quantum computer by 2032Pending
2033DARPA expects a utility-scale quantum computer to be built by 2033Pending
2033IBM aims for a 100,000-qubit quantum-centric supercomputer by 2033Pending
2033IBM Blue Jay: a 2,000-qubit fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2033Pending
Jun 2033Microsoft expects to build a quantum supercomputer within 10 yearsPending
2035Canada sets 2035 deadline for federal move to post-quantum cryptographyPending
2035UK NCSC sets 2035 deadline to complete migration to post-quantum cryptographyPending
2035UK mission: quantum computers running a trillion operations by 2035Pending
2035US aims to move federal systems to quantum-resistant encryption by 2035Pending
Feb 2035Google's CEO sees practically useful quantum computers 5 to 10 years awayPending
2041Experts: a code-breaking quantum computer is likely within 15 yearsPending

Resolved

DuePredictionStatus
2017Google aims to show quantum supremacy with a 49-qubit chip by the end of 2017Missed
2021IBM to debut Eagle, its first processor with more than 100 qubits, in 2021Delivered
Dec 2022Microsoft to have a quantum computer on the market within five yearsMissed
2023IBM to debut Condor, a 1,121-qubit processor, in 2023Delivered
2024D-Wave's full Advantage2 annealer, with 7,000 qubits, in 2023-2024Missed
2024IBM's 100x100 challenge: accurate 100-qubit, depth-100 circuits in 2024Delivered
2024IBM to link 462-qubit Flamingo processors into a 1,386-qubit system in 2024Partly delivered
2024NIST to finalize standards for four post-quantum algorithms in about two yearsPartly delivered
2025Honeywell to grow its quantum volume tenfold every year for five yearsDelivered
2025IonQ to reach #AQ 64, a score on its own benchmark, in 2025Delivered
2025Quantinuum to release Helios, a 100-qubit machine with lower error rates, in 2025Partly delivered
2025Rigetti to deliver a 100-plus-qubit system with 99.5% fidelity by the end of 2025Missed
2025Rigetti to build 1,000-qubit quantum computers in 2024Withdrawn
2026IBM Nighthawk to run 7,500-gate circuits by the end of 2026Delivered
2026Infleqtion targets 30 logical qubits on its neutral-atom computer in 2026Delivered
2045Jensen Huang: very useful quantum computers are 15 to 30 years awayWithdrawn