PredictionIndustryMissed
Microsoft to have a quantum computer on the market within five years
Due Dec 2022
Todd Holmdahl, head of Microsoft's quantum computing effort, told Bloomberg in December 2017 that Microsoft would have a quantum computer on the market within five years. Microsoft was building its own machine based on a design called topological qubits.
- Predicted by
- Todd Holmdahl (Microsoft)
- Type
- Company executive
- Said on
- Dec 11, 2017
- Original deadline
- within five years (Dec 2022)
- Status
- Missed
- Counts toward
- the Quantum Supremacy estimate
Outcome
Jun 21, 2023: Microsoft had no quantum computer of its own on the market by the end of 2022. In June 2023 it published a roadmap to build one, with most milestones still ahead; in February 2025 it unveiled a research chip that it says holds eight topological qubits.
Outcome sources
-
TechCrunch
Microsoft expects to build a quantum supercomputer within 10 years
“Microsoft today announced its roadmap for building its own quantum supercomputer, using the topological qubits the company's researchers have been working on for quite a few years now. There are still plenty of intermediary milestones to be reached”
-
MIT Technology Review
A new Microsoft chip could lead to more stable quantum computers
“the company says it has been testing a topological qubit, and that it has wired up a chip containing eight of them.”
Related
Source
-
Data Center Knowledge (Bloomberg)
Microsoft Takes Path Less Traveled to Build a Quantum Computer
“Holmdahl, who led development of the Xbox and the company's HoloLens goggles, said Microsoft will have a quantum computer on the market within five years.”
Each quote above was checked automatically against the original page. Added Oct 15, 2026. Spotted an error? Tell us and we will review it.